The only difference for the datasets is that here the non-infilled version of E-OBS has been used. From January onward, the standard reference period used for the C3S climate monitoring activities is — Read more about this reference period and how it compares to the previously used period of — in a recent C3S news article. Spring in Europe: was it really so cold? You are here: Home News Spring in Europe: was it really so cold? Date: 11th June Central Europe Average spring temperature anomalies for central Europe from to , relative to the — reference period.
The larger-scale picture. Spring average surface air temperature percentiles for Europe and surroundings. Colour categories refer to the percentiles of the temperature distribution as calculated from the — reference period see explanation in notes.
There are no real surprises here: March snow is the norm in the Midwest, with freezes over the entire month. The best chance of this is in either the southern Appalachians or the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.
Tahoe City is in California's Sierra near Lake Tahoe, notorious for atmospheric river events with feet of Sierra cement snowfall. Daily 14 Today. Winter Safety and Preparedness. By Jonathan Erdman March 01, Snow covers budding cherry blossom trees, Wednesday, March 21, , at the tidal basin in Washington D. At a Glance You might think spring when you hear March, but the weather frequently doesn't cooperate. On rare occasions, it can even snow in parts of the South in March.
Much of the nation can still experience a freeze in March. Snowfall will be near normal, with the best chances for snow in mid- to late January and early to mid-February. Winter will be cooler than normal, with the coldest temperatures in mid- and late December and mid-January and from late January into early February. Winter will be colder and drier than normal, with the coldest temperatures in mid- to late November, through most of December and January, and in early to mid-February.
Snowfall will be near normal in most areas, although a few places south of the Lakes will have much-above-normal snowfall. The snowiest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, early and mid- to late January, early to mid-February, and mid-March.
Winter will be colder than normal, with below-normal precipitation but above-normal snowfall, especially in the west. The coldest periods will occur in mid- to late November and through much of the period from mid-December through January. The snowiest periods will arrive in mid-December, early and mid-January, and mid- to late February.
Winter will be colder than normal, on average, with the coldest periods in mid-December, early and mid- to late January, and early to mid-February. Rainfall will be near normal in the north and above normal in the south, with the best threats for snow in the north from late December into early January and in mid- to late January.
Winter temperatures will be below normal, on average, with the coldest periods in early, mid-, and late December; early and late January; and mid-February. Precipitation will be above normal in the east and below normal in the west, while snowfall will be below normal in most areas.
The snowiest periods will be in late November, mid- to late December, mid- and late January, mid- and late February, and late March. Winter will be colder and drier than normal, on average, with the coldest periods in mid- and late December, early and late January, and early to mid-February. Snowfall will be below normal in the north and above normal in central and southern areas. The snowiest periods will be in late December, early January, and mid-February.
Winter will be colder than normal, especially in the south, with the coldest periods in mid- to late November, mid- and late December, and early and late January.
Snowfall will be near normal, with the best chances for snow in early and late January, mainly in the north. Winter will be milder than normal, with the coldest periods in mid- to late November, late December, and early and mid- to late January.
Precipitation will be near to slightly above normal, with snowfall above normal in the north and below normal in the south. The snowiest periods will be in mid- to late November, late December, early to mid-January, and the last third of March. Winter will be slightly colder than normal as well as drier, with below-normal snowfall in most areas. The coldest periods will be in late November, late December, and early and late January, with the snowiest periods in late December, late January, and early March.
Winter will be colder than normal in the east, with above-normal precipitation, while the west will be slightly warmer and drier than normal. The coldest periods will be in mid- to late November, from late December into early January, and in late February. Snowfall will be above normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in late November, early December, and early January. Winter temperatures will be milder than normal, with below-normal precipitation and snowfall.
The coldest periods will occur in early December, from late December into early January, and in mid-January and early March. The snowiest periods will occur in late December and early March.
Winter will be warmer and drier than normal, with below-normal mountain snows. The coldest temperatures will occur from mid-December into mid-January, in mid-February, and in early March. The stormiest period will be in late December. Winter temperatures will be milder than normal, with the coldest periods in mid- to late January, late February, and early March.
Precipitation will be near normal N and above normal S. Snowfall will be above normal in all areas but the south, with the snowiest periods in early November and mid- to late January. Winter temperatures will be warmer than normal, with the coolest periods in mid- to late December and mid- to late March. Rainfall will be below normal, with the stormiest periods in early December, late January, and early March.
Winter temperatures will be above normal in the north and near normal in the south, with the coldest periods in early to mid- and late January and early to mid- and late February. Precipitation will be below normal in the north and above in the south. Snowfall will be below normal in the east and above in the west, with the snowiest periods in early and mid-December, early to mid- and mid- to late January, and mid-March. Winter temperatures will be slightly above normal in the east and below normal in the west, with the coldest periods in early and mid- to late December; early, mid-, and late January; and mid- to late February.
Observed and predicted daily polar cap height i. The current warm PCHs in the stratosphere are a result of strong vertical Wave Activity Flux WAFz from the troposphere to the stratosphere or poleward heat transport in the stratosphere that has been observed last week and winding down currently Figure 1 2.
Negative or downward WAFz is predicted for the remainder of this week Figure 1 2. The positive WAFz will contribute to weak ridging centered near the Dateline in the polar stratosphere though the PV is predicted to recover and return to being centered near the North Pole Figure 13 coupled with a return to a positive stratospheric AO this week into next week Figure It does appear to me that the ridging in the polar stratosphere centered near the Dateline and warming stretching from East Asia towards Alaska with below normal geopotential heights over Eastern Canada Figure 1 3 is suggestive of an ongoing stretched polar vortex event.
A stretched polar vortex is associated with cold temperatures first in Central and East Asia and then across Canada and the US east of the Rockies. The dynamical models have been waffling on the magnitude of any cold or snow in the coming week or two. Following stretched polar vortex events, the PV can recover quickly, and some model runs are suggestive of a stronger PV the remainder of the month. Forecasted average mb geopotential heights dam; contours and geopotential height anomalies m; shading across the Northern Hemisphere for December I am very skeptical of this forecast especially the deep cold in the Central US.
Arctic sea ice is growing but remains well below normal east of Greenland but especially in Baffin Bay and in the Barents-Kara Seas. Sea ice is close to normal in the Canadian Archipelagos and in the Chukchi Sea.
Below normal sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favors cold temperatures in Central and East Asia, while below normal sea ice in Baffin Bay favors cold temperatures in the Eastern Europe and Northern Europe however this topic remains controversial. Recent research has shown that the regional anomalies that are most highly correlated with the strength of the stratospheric PV are across the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter PV.
Low sea ice in the Chukchi, Beaufort and Bering seas may favor colder temperatures across North America but has not been shown to weaken the PV. Observed Arctic sea ice extent on 7 November white.
Orange line shows climatological extent of sea ice based on the years The latest weekly-mean global SST anomalies ending 7 November The forecasts are for the MJO to remain weak where no phase is favored for the next two weeks.
Therefore it seems unlikely that the MJO is contributing significantly to the predicted weather pattern across North America over the next two weeks but admittedly this is outside of my expertise. Past and forecast values of the MJO index. Yellow lines indicate individual ensemble-member forecasts, with the green line showing the ensemble-mean. Sector numbers indicate the phase of the MJO, with geographical labels indicating where anomalous convection occurs during that phase.
Video: Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the US. We appreciate your taking the time to read the public Arctic Oscillation blog from Dr.
Our sCast principal engineer, Karl Pfeiffer , can help you use sCast and other AER seasonal forecast products to deliver important, long-lead time weather intelligence to your business. Please reach out to Karl today! Video : Explanation of the Polar Vortex. We use cookies on this site to enhance your user experience.
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